DXY: Risk of technical retracement lower – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) started the week on a softer footing as markets reacted to Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. DXY was last at 107.23 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart fades

“Most FX enjoyed a rally, led by JPY, KRW and EUR while USD traded on the back foot. ‘Bessent relief’ would look to US data for cues this week.”

“US data are frontloaded due to Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thu. Focus is on conference board consumer confidence (Tue); 3Q GDP, core PCE, durable goods orders, Chicago PMI, FOMC minutes (Wed). Firmer print will add to US exceptionalism narrative, keeping USD rates and USD elevated for longer, while softer print should add to USD unwinding momentum (i.e. USD may ease more).”

“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell. Bearish divergence on daily MACD, RSI observed. We are still not ruling out the risk of technical retracement lower. Support at 106.20, 105.40/50 levels (21 DMA, 38.2% fibo). Resistance at 107.40, 108.10 (recent high).”