EUR/USD: Range-bound on the day – OCBC

Euro (EUR) jumped above 1.17-handle overnight but there was no particular headline or data that drove the move. Pair was last seen at 1.1690, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bearish momentum on daily chart is fading

"Broad USD slippage was the trigger. Bearish momentum on daily chart is fading while rise in RSI moderated. 2-way trade likely in absence of fresh catalyst. Resistance here at 1.1690 (21 DMA), 1.1820 levels. Support at 1.1620, 1.1520 (50 DMA)."

"Key event this week – ECB meeting – but expectations are for no move (likely a non-event). Data to watch: prelim PMIs (Thursday), German IFO (Friday)."

Jul 22, 2025

EUR: Finding fresh support – ING

CFTC data shows net long positioning on EUR/USD at 15.6% of open interest since 15 July. That is the highest since January 2024, but still a relatively contained figure considering the pair is trading almost 10% above early-2024 levels.

US: Interest rates are likely to drop – Commerzbank

In recent weeks, I have often read that the inflation shock triggered by US tariffs will not be too severe, and that even if it is, it will only be temporary, with the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Fed.