EUR/USD trades below 1.1500 as wage growth eases – BBH

EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.1500 as ECB wage data point to easing pay growth, reinforcing expectations the central bank will keep rates steady, BBH FX analysts report.

ECB wage tracker signals cooling pay pressures

"EUR/USD is trading heavy under 1.1500. The ECB’s negotiated wage tracker points to lower and more stable wage pressures consistent with the ECB’s 2% inflation target. The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments - which closely matches the ECB’s indicator of negotiated wages - indicates an average negotiated wage growth of 3.0% y/y over 2025 vs. 4.9% in 2024 and easing further to 2.2% by Q3 2026."

"Bottom line: the ECB is in a good place to keep rates on hold. That limits EUR/USD downside. Next two key support levels are offered at 1.1392 (August 1 low) and 1.1334 (200-day moving average)."