Philippines: GDP growth misses expectations – UOB

The Philippine economy grew 3.0% year-on-year in 4Q25, falling short of expectations and marking the weakest pace since 1Q21, according to UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research. For the full year, real GDP grew 4.4% in 2025, below the forecast of 4.6%. Looking ahead, the expectation for a modest recovery to 5.0% in 2026 remains intact, supported by various factors including the Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship.

Weak growth outlook for Philippines

"The Philippine economy grew 3.0% y/y in 4Q25 (from a downwardly revised 3.9% in 3Q25), marking the weakest pace since 1Q21 and undershooting our estimate and Bloomberg consensus of 3.7%."

"Looking ahead, we maintain our expectation of a modest growth recovery to 5.0% in 2026 (official est: 5.0%–6.0%), supported by the Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship, a more accommodative monetary policy stance, manageable inflation, greater clarity on global trade dynamics, and the ongoing AI upcycle."

"The latest weaker-than-expected GDP print reinforces the case for further monetary easing, albeit with limited room. However, any rate cut is unlikely to be immediate, given the BSP’s cautious guidance in Dec and a global monetary policy environment nearing the end of the easing cycle."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)